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Monday, June 28, 2004

Game over.

Middle-of-the-night Update (4:00am): Merciful heavens!!!

I'd checked the numbers at midnight (in light of the few back-and-forth contests still unresolved) and it didn't look promising, so I figured I'd check again later in the morning in hopes they'd changed...but no such luck. This would appear to be the final tally:
Liberal: 135
Con.: 99
BQ: 54
NDP: 19
Ind.: 1
The implication of these numbers is appalling. The Liberal and NDP seats combined are exactly half the total seats (154) in the House, which is one seat shy of the number needed to form a majority coalition government. This is, I believe, the first time a situation like this has happened in Canadian political history.

It now depends on which party the Speaker of the House is elected from. If the Speaker is elected from the Liberals or the NDP, a Liberal/NDP coalition government will survive only as long as it can keep the Bloc Quebecois and Chuck Cadman (who lost the Conservative nomination in South Surrey and then won the riding quite convincingly as an independent) content...and it's highly unlikely that anyone from the Conservatives or the Bloc (much less Chuck Cadman) will be politically generous enough to allow themself to be elected Speaker.

Since the same problem will apply to a Conservative/Bloc/Independent coalition (should a Liberal/NDP coalition lose a vote of confidence), we can probably look forward to going through this mess (again) no later than Spring 2005.

Sad Political Note: For the first time since 1958, the NDP has been shut out of seats in Saskatchewan. Shit.

(Original post follows)

Thank heavens the election is over (as of 9:15pm)...

Barring a couple of back-and-forth contests, it looks something like this for the makeup of our next Parliament (once again proving we can elect a government in 35 days):
308/308 ridings reporting:

Liberal: 136
Cons.: 95
BQ: 54
NDP: 22
Ind.: 1


Gonna be an interesting year or so...

Anyways, it's been a long evening, and I'm off for sleep...